China Coal Records All Around - Prices, Exports, Shipping Rates, and Deals!

Well, I convinced my institution's library to purchase the IEA's 2007 World Energy Outlook for me - so stay tuned for a digest of the juicy bits sometime before Thanksgiving.  You can already tell from the executive summary what the main themes are: Emerging nation energy needs = Huge, Non-coal energy prices, supplies = rising, precarious, Coal use rate = Skyrockets, Efforts to stabilize end of century atmospheric carbon concentration below 450ppm = hopeless.

And now for the Coal Records.

First, the record deal pursued by BHP to purchase Rio Tinto to produce the world's largest coal and ore mining company deserves some attention since it reflects an extremely educated view about the profitability prospects of mining and materials in the coming years.  Take at look at this article in The Australian concerning the proposed merger.

As for exports, Business Spectator Reports:
China's October coal exports climbed 17.4 per cent from September, the second-highest level so far this year, despite bad weather disrupting loading during the month ... China has yet to release imports for October.

... The trade data came as Chinese domestic coal prices climbed to all-time highs ahead of the peak winter consuming season. The top quality coal was quoted at 530 yuan to 540 yuan ($US71-$US73) a tonne in Qinhuangdao, China's top coal export port.

... Some traders and industry officials said China might return a net exporter for the rest of the year as soaring freight rates and record international prices were limiting imports by power generators into the south from Indonesia.

Australian spot thermal coal prices rose to a record high above $US83 a tonne on Monday [See this Bloomberg article for more. -ed.], partly due to lower exports from the country facing serious port congestion that is unlikely to be solved until the second half of next year.

... During the first nine months, China's coal imports from Indonesia surged 298.7 per cent to 11.14 million tonnes, including 8.7 million tonnes of thermal coal.

Pretty impressive.  As for those shipping rates and bottlenecks, check out Euro2Day/Financial Times:

The Baltic Dry index, which measures freight rates for ships transporting dry goods on the world's main trade routes, has risen 143 per cent in 2007. Lead, this year's best performing "traditional" commodity, has managed 108 per cent.

Shipping has been subject to the same forces that have been pushing up the prices of its cargoes. China's explosive economic growth, alongside healthy economies elsewhere, has provided a double fillip for shippers. This year, bottlenecks in supply chains have added further pressure - for example, space constraints at Australian ports have left coal ships queuing idly at sea.

Shipyards are working flat out to fill orders equivalent to around half the world's existing bulk cargo capacity. However, three-quarters of those new ships are not expected before 2009. No wonder speculators are entering the freight market in greater numbers. Imarex, the shipping exchange based in Oslo in which Nymex has just bought a 15 per cent stake, reported record dry bulk derivatives volumes in October, with the number of trades almost four times the level of a year ago. Meanwhile, shipping equities have soared, with shares in China Shipping Container Lines, for example, up five-fold this year - an explosive performance, even by Chinese standards.

 
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