China Builds 80 Gigawatts in 2007!

I am amazed and shocked but, again, not surprised.  It's just incredible - 80 Gigawatts additional capacity increase in only one year!?!  That's over two 750 Megawatt projects per week!!  Assuming they run the things on full load, that's 700 Terawatthours/year, more than the entire 2006 output of Germany or all of India or the whole continent of Africa!  How on earth can Americans (or, should I say, certain Oklahoma Power Companies looking for lush profits and using politics and "useful idiots" to push their less competitive product while hiding behind a fake shell lobbying organization pretending to be "concerned Kansans") or Europeans possibly get bent out of shape about adding one or two power plants in the face of that onslaught?!  It's like worrying about a leaky faucet when you're in the path of a tsunami.

From Reuters UK:

BEIJING, Nov 1 (Reuters) - China's power generating capacity is estimated to increase at least 12.5 percent this year to more than 700 gigawatts (GW), a senior energy official said on Thursday, fueled by a fast-expanding economy thirsty for power.

... He said China's generating capacity had been expanding at an average of about 100 GW a year since 2004, an increase surpassing Italy's total capacity of 88 GW.

So, this is actually a bit of a slowdown?

... Wind power capacity will rise more than 74 percent to surpass 4 GW by the end of this year, from 2.3 GW at the end of 2006, he said. "Wind power capacity will likely top 10 GW by 2010, doubling the previous plan of 5 GW," Zhao said.

So, wind accounting for only 5% of added capacity, and will be able 1% total capacity in 2010. That doesn't seem particularly impressive or aggressive to me.

Meanwhile, at Engineer Live:

Despite concerns about global warming, there will be a steady increase in world coal-fired generation resulting in installed capacity of 2.1 million MW (2l00 GW) by 2020.

This new forecast in the McIlvaine report, Coal-fired Boilers: World Analysis and Forecast, represents a substantial reduction from the forecast made in April when the 2020 anticipated capacity was predicted at 2.7 million MW.

The lowering of the forecast is primarily due to restraints on new coal-fired power plant construction in Europe and the US due to concerns about global warming. In April it was estimated that expenditures of $2.5 trillion would be made for new plants. It is now estimated that expenditures for new plants will be only $1.5 trillion ["only" $1.5 Trillion?! -ed.] , but that there will be substantial investment in upgrading existing plants to meet environmental and efficiency goals.

... China will add 350,000 MW during the period, accounting for more than half the total additions...

Um, did someone forget to tell Engineer Live about the above "average 100GW/year additions" and "80GW in 2007" story?  How in the world can one really believe that China would add 80GW this year, and only four times that in the next twelve years?!

India will be the second leading country in terms of coal-fired generating additions. It will add more than 100,000 MW of coal-fired capacity by 2020.

Again, a substantial underestimate in my book!  I would estimate almost five times that!  But they try and save themselves with this:

There are a number of important variables which potentially will change the forecast again. However, most of these variables are likely to result in upward rather than downward changes in the forecast. One possibility is that the average citizen will not deem the global warming threat as severe enough to warrant doubling electricity rates.

... The fact that oil prices soared above $90/barrel and the reality that the major energy resources for the US, China, and India are coal means that for these and many other countries, coal remains the most cost effective option for power generation.

 
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