China To Face Coal "Shortage" by 2010
From Interfax China
So, not really a "shortage" after all. Only a need to import 3% of the demand for a particular commodity.
The ChinaCoalWatcher has been often surprised by the frequently severe underestimates of China's growth in energy consumption put out in the last few years by media and even by respected institutions such as the IEA and EIA. Unreliable official statistics were a problem in the past, but recent data has improved. Perhaps it's all due to a stubborn misconception that double-digit economic growth can only ever be a temporary phenomenon or that tightness in the energy market will raise prices past the point where China can afford to expand production and consumption at it's desired rate. Probably, neither viewpoint is accurate.
At any rate, past predictions of China's coal usage in 2010 have been all over the place, but always too low.
This summary from PR Minds suggested China would only need 2.8 GT by 2020!
This recent article from World Politics Review says that China would only need 2.6 GT by 2010 (which being only 10% more than current consumption is highly doubtful)
Forbes quoted AFX to say that demand by 2010 would be even less, at 2.5 Gt, and only 2.9 GT by 2020.
But they did the same thing back in 2005 when Forbes said that demand would only be 2.2 GT by 2010, less than 2005 consumption, described as "racing ahead" AND with a predicted shortage of 330 million tons!
So don't believe everything that you read! My prediction is that China (and other developing countries) would like to move its population to a first-world standard of consumption as quickly as possible. Look at the following table of per-capita 2006 electricity production for some various nations for a perspective on what this might require.
Despite using a quarter of the world's coal output in their power plants, the Chinese still fall 32% below the global average. The citizens of the UK consume less electricity per capita than those of almost any other large, wealthy nation. They enjoy a cool climate, and have outsourced almost all their energy-intensive industries, yet still consume over three times as much electricity as the average Chinese citizen. The comparable Asian economies of Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea make an average of over four times more juice per person. China also has over four times the population of the US but presently uses only 70% of the primary energy. This means they would have to triple their energy consumption to even be half the per-capita rate of the US.
The purpose of all this is to demonstrate precisely how much farther China has to go. And giant India is only a third of the way to China. And huge Bangladesh is only a fourth of the way to India! These facts should sober and shake the foundations of those that think that global energy consumption or emissions have anywhere to go but way up over the next 20 years if there is going to be widespread reduction of poverty and improvement in the quality of life of several billion people. These recent articles from the Hindustan Times (about the unliklihood of meeting the Kyoto targets) and The Korea Times (about the cost of compliance for a recently-devloped nation) suggest the same I believe.
It is therefore reasonable to suggest that industry-intensive, hot and humid China will seek to at least quadruple their use of energy (and CO2 emissions) in the next 20 years. Furthermore it is sensible to think that a country that has increased its coal usage and production by nearly 10% a year for the last decade, should easily be able to sustain a rate of increase of 7% for the next 20 years (required for a quadrupling). Finally it is consistent with recent History to conclude that given global supply issues, cost, and domestic availability and employment, that the majority of this additional energy will be produced from coal.
China will face a 100 million ton coal shortage in 2010 due to policy adjustments in the coal industry in recent years, according to a report released by the China Coal Trade & Development Association (CCTDA).China's coal demand will reach 3.01 billion tons in 2010, and the shortage may reach 100 million tons
... According to CCTDA's report, investment in the coal mining industry in 2006 was up 27.2 percent year-on-year, but up only 13.5 percent ... between this January and May.. ["only 13.5 percent"! ed.]3GT represents a consumption rate of 100 tons of coal per second! But 2006 Demand was 2.4GT, so this estimate represents an average year-on-year growth of less than 6%, which, if anything, is probably still too low given the average growth rate of 12% over the last five years. At that rate, 2010 demand would be a remarkable 3.8GT, or what the entire world produced only 26 years ago in 1981, and China's emissions would exceed those of the US by more than half.
Coal prices will grow higher and higher, as China has become a net importer of coal, according to the report.
... Currently, China imports coal mainly from Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, Russia and North Korea.
So, not really a "shortage" after all. Only a need to import 3% of the demand for a particular commodity.The ChinaCoalWatcher has been often surprised by the frequently severe underestimates of China's growth in energy consumption put out in the last few years by media and even by respected institutions such as the IEA and EIA. Unreliable official statistics were a problem in the past, but recent data has improved. Perhaps it's all due to a stubborn misconception that double-digit economic growth can only ever be a temporary phenomenon or that tightness in the energy market will raise prices past the point where China can afford to expand production and consumption at it's desired rate. Probably, neither viewpoint is accurate.
At any rate, past predictions of China's coal usage in 2010 have been all over the place, but always too low.
This summary from PR Minds suggested China would only need 2.8 GT by 2020!
This recent article from World Politics Review says that China would only need 2.6 GT by 2010 (which being only 10% more than current consumption is highly doubtful)
Forbes quoted AFX to say that demand by 2010 would be even less, at 2.5 Gt, and only 2.9 GT by 2020.
But they did the same thing back in 2005 when Forbes said that demand would only be 2.2 GT by 2010, less than 2005 consumption, described as "racing ahead" AND with a predicted shortage of 330 million tons!
So don't believe everything that you read! My prediction is that China (and other developing countries) would like to move its population to a first-world standard of consumption as quickly as possible. Look at the following table of per-capita 2006 electricity production for some various nations for a perspective on what this might require.
| Country | KWH/year | Country | KWH/year | Country | KWH/year |
| Iceland | 31,500 | Taiwan | 10,000 | Holland | 6,000 |
| Norway | 26,400 | France | 9,300 | Italy | 5,400 |
| Canada | 17,500 | Japan | 9,000 | World Avg | 2,900 |
| Qatar | 16,500 | South Korea | 8,400 | China | 2,200 |
| Sweden | 16,000 | Germany | 7,700 | Mexico | 2,200 |
| U.S. | 14,100 | Russia | 7,000 | India | 650 |
| Australia | 12,700 | U.K. | 6,700 | Bangladesh | 160 |
Despite using a quarter of the world's coal output in their power plants, the Chinese still fall 32% below the global average. The citizens of the UK consume less electricity per capita than those of almost any other large, wealthy nation. They enjoy a cool climate, and have outsourced almost all their energy-intensive industries, yet still consume over three times as much electricity as the average Chinese citizen. The comparable Asian economies of Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea make an average of over four times more juice per person. China also has over four times the population of the US but presently uses only 70% of the primary energy. This means they would have to triple their energy consumption to even be half the per-capita rate of the US.
The purpose of all this is to demonstrate precisely how much farther China has to go. And giant India is only a third of the way to China. And huge Bangladesh is only a fourth of the way to India! These facts should sober and shake the foundations of those that think that global energy consumption or emissions have anywhere to go but way up over the next 20 years if there is going to be widespread reduction of poverty and improvement in the quality of life of several billion people. These recent articles from the Hindustan Times (about the unliklihood of meeting the Kyoto targets) and The Korea Times (about the cost of compliance for a recently-devloped nation) suggest the same I believe.
It is therefore reasonable to suggest that industry-intensive, hot and humid China will seek to at least quadruple their use of energy (and CO2 emissions) in the next 20 years. Furthermore it is sensible to think that a country that has increased its coal usage and production by nearly 10% a year for the last decade, should easily be able to sustain a rate of increase of 7% for the next 20 years (required for a quadrupling). Finally it is consistent with recent History to conclude that given global supply issues, cost, and domestic availability and employment, that the majority of this additional energy will be produced from coal.
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