One of the concerns of China's rise that this blog explores is my prediction that global commodity production will be unable to handle the new demands from the rapid introduction of several billion pillion to the modern, resource-intensive lifestyle.  "Unable" meaning that the era of abundance and widespread affordability of many basic resources to which the populations of the richer nations have become accustomed may be coming to a gradual close. 

To see what this will be like, one can look to current examples where this phenomenon is already running its course.   These are usually natural products where the quantity of a good cannot be increased because, for the limitations of ecology and environment, consumption already equals the maximum annual global production rate.  But any other reason that limits expanding production - such as government regulation, will have a similar effect.

As the global population rises and grows increasingly prosperous, the relative scarcity of these goods means that only the wealthiest bidders can have access.  Clear past examples are tuna and caviar (and almost all non-farmed marine products).  Presently, fossil fuels and metals prices are rising quickly, and now, Champagne.

From the Daily Mail:

Increasing global demand for champagne means there could soon be a worldwide shortage - with Britons likely to be the first to miss out.

Vineyard owners in eastern France are refusing to sell tens of millions of bottles stocked in their cellars because they see them as their retirement "nest-eggs".

The result is that the most prestigious French champagne houses are having trouble keeping pace with rising demand in the US and emerging markets such as Russia, China and India.

Patrick Le Brun, head of the union of champagne vineyard owners, said Britons will be the first to feel the pinch.

"If there isn't enough to go around, the producers will prefer places where there is growth," he said.

Frederic Cumenal, president of Moet & Chandon, said: "The industry has always succeeded in coping with demand.

"Today it's no longer the case. Yields are at a maximum and we will soon hit a wall."

Global champagne sales have risen sharply in recent years, from 287million bottles in 2002 to 321million in 2006.

This year they are forecast to reach 330million, with exports to Russia alone growing by 39 per cent as the country's so-called "New Russians" bask in their new-found wealth.

But that is nothing compared to other developing countries such as China and India, where exports are growing by 50 per cent and 125 per cent respectively.

The shortfall lies in the fact only 32,600 hectares of vineyards are authorised to produce the black grapes needed for champagne.

... A long-term solution is for more vines to be planted, although official permission is required to do so, and this is believed to be at least ten years off being granted.